MOT Pass Rates 2024: The Definitive Guide (by Make, Model, Age, Fuel)

Table of Contents

1. The National Average is a Well-Intentioned Lie
2. The Reliability Curve: Where 208 Cohorts Actually Sit
3. The Manufacturer Matrix: The Four Strategic Quadrants
4. What This Means for Your Used Car Search
5. Check the Specific Car You're Considering
6. Frequently Asked Questions

Act I: The National Average is a Well-Intentioned Lie

Let's start with what everyone wants to know:

But that number is one of the most misleading statistics in the automotive world. Here's why.

An "average" collapses the entire complexity of the UK used car market into a single, false sense of security. It treats a 3-year-old Toyota and a 15-year-old Land Rover as if they're the same. It ignores that diesel vans accumulate miles differently than petrol city cars. It hides the fact that some cohorts pass 90% of the time, while others barely scrape 55%.

The Real Question

You don't need to know the national average. You need to know:

"Where does the specific 2017 Ford Focus diesel with 95,000 miles sit within its cohort?"

That's the question we answer. The average doesn't. Let's dismantle it.

Act II: The Reliability Curve — Dismantling the Average

We analyzed 208 vehicle cohorts (grouped by make, model, and age band). For each cohort, we computed its pass rate. Then we plotted the distribution.

Here's what the data actually shows:

What you're seeing: This is a frequency polygon—a Tufte-approved way of showing distribution. The X-axis is pass rate, the Y-axis is the number of cohorts. The curve reveals something the average conceals: most cohorts cluster around 75-80%, but there's a long, worrying tail of poor performers.

The Three Zones

The Reliable Cluster (39% of cohorts): Pass rates ≥ 80%
These are the "safe bets." Brands like Toyota, Honda, Skoda, and Mini dominate here. Modern cars, well-maintained older models, and certain German premium makes with good engineering.

The Middle Ground (44% of cohorts): Pass rates 65-80%
The bulk of the UK fleet. Solid performers most of the time, but age, mileage, and maintenance history start to matter significantly. This is where the Ford Focus, VW Golf, and Vauxhall Astra live—reliable if cared for, risky if neglected.

The Risky Tail (17% of cohorts): Pass rates < 65%
This is the danger zone. Older French diesels, certain high-mileage commercial vehicles, and makes with known reliability issues. If the car you're considering is in this tail, you need a full mechanical inspection and should budget for repairs.

The Age Factor: When Reliability Falls Off a Cliff

The 13-Year Cliff: Pass rates hold steady until about year 10, then plummet. By year 13, you've lost 27 percentage points from new. This isn't gradual decline—it's a cliff. Budget accordingly.

Key Takeaway: Age matters more than most buyers realize. A 7-year-old car (78.6% pass rate) is fundamentally different from a 13-year-old (65.3%). Don't treat them as equivalent.

The Manufacturer Matrix: Where Every Brand Really Sits

A simple ranked list of manufacturers is lazy data journalism. It doesn't tell the story. We need context.

We built a 2x2 strategic matrix (a Berinato-approved tool) that plots every major manufacturer on two axes:

• X-axis (Popularity): Total test volume in our dataset. High volume = widely owned, plenty of parts, known issues documented.
• Y-axis (Reliability): Average pass rate across all their models.

This creates four strategic quadrants:

How to use this: Find the manufacturer you're considering. The quadrant tells you the strategic trade-off you're making.

The Four Quadrants Explained

🟢 The Workhorses (Top Right)
High reliability, high popularity. Popular for a reason.

These are the safe, data-backed choices. They pass MOT often, parts are cheap and available, mechanics know them inside out.

• Examples: Vauxhall, Mini, BMW, Land Rover, Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Kia, Toyota, Volvo
• Strategy: Buy with confidence, especially if maintenance history is clean.

🔵 Hidden Gems (Top Left)
High reliability, low popularity. Excellent but often overlooked.

These manufacturers make reliable cars, but they're not as common on UK roads. That can mean harder-to-find parts or specialist mechanics, but if those don't bother you, these are exceptional value.

• Examples: Mitsubishi, Tesla, Skoda, Porsche, Seat, Dacia
• Strategy: Strong buy if you can find a well-maintained example and don't mind slightly longer wait times for parts.

🔴 The Danger Zone (Bottom Right)
Low reliability, high popularity. Common on the road, but be aware of the risks.

These brands are everywhere, which means parts are plentiful and mechanics know the common faults. But the data shows they fail MOT more often than average. Age and mileage accelerate problems.

• Examples: Ford, Volkswagen, Renault, Peugeot, Nissan, Suzuki
• Strategy: Only buy with comprehensive service history, recent MOT pass, and ideally an AA/RAC pre-purchase inspection. Budget for repairs.

🟡 The Quirks (Bottom Left)
Low reliability, low popularity. For enthusiasts who understand the trade-offs.

Specialist cars, niche brands, or older models with known issues. If you love the brand or the driving experience, fine—but go in with eyes open.

• Examples: Honda, Citroen, Hyundai, Jaguar, Fiat, Mazda, Alfa Romeo, Smart
• Strategy: Only buy if you're mechanically savvy, have a trusted specialist, or genuinely love the car and accept higher running costs.

Champions vs Strugglers: The Hard Numbers

The 16-Point Gap: Toyota owners pass MOT 16% more often than Renault owners. This isn't brand bias—it's engineering reality backed by 62,898 real tests.

What This Means: If you're choosing between a Toyota and a Renault of similar age/mileage/price, the Toyota is statistically safer. Doesn't mean every Renault will fail—but the odds are stacked against you.

The Fuel Type Factor: Why Diesels Struggle

City diesel owners know the pain: the dreaded DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) warning light. Our data confirms it.

Electric Dominance: Electric cars pass at 89.3%—18 points higher than diesels. Fewer moving parts = fewer failures. Hybrids split the difference at 82.1%.

Why Diesels Fail More

1. DPF Clogs (City Driving): Short journeys don't get hot enough to regenerate the filter. Result: emission failures.
2. EGR Valve Issues: Exhaust Gas Recirculation valves clog with soot over time.
3. Dual-Mass Flywheel: Expensive failures (£800+) on high-mileage examples.
4. AdBlue Systems: Modern diesels have another failure point (Euro 6 emissions).

Diesel Advice: Only buy if the car has been motorway-driven (100+ miles weekly). Check MOT history for "emissions" advisories.

What This Means for Your Used Car Search

The Three-Level Funnel

Use this guide as a filtering tool:

1. Level 1: National Picture (this page)
   Understand the landscape. Learn which manufacturers sit where. Get a feel for how age affects pass rates.

2. Level 2: Model-Specific Guides (coming soon)
   Drill into the specific make/model you're considering. See cohort-level data: pass rates by age band, mileage benchmarks, common failure patterns.

3. Level 3: Individual Vehicle Check
   Use MOT Ninja to check the exact car you're viewing. See its specific MOT history, advisories, mileage progression, V5C issue date.

Each level narrows your focus. This pillar gives you the strategic context. The model guides give you tactical intelligence. The individual check gives you the final verdict.

Check the Specific Car You're Considering

What a Full MOT Ninja Report Includes

1. Complete MOT History (2005-present): Every test, every result, every advisory
2. Finance Check: Confirm the seller actually owns the car (1 in 3 have outstanding finance)
3. Write-Off Check: See if it's been declared Cat S/N (insurance write-off)
4. Stolen Vehicle Check: Query the Police National Computer
5. Mileage Validation: Flag suspicious odometer rewinds ("clocking")
6. V5C Issue Date: Recent logbook re-issue can indicate hidden problems
7. Specification Confirmation: Match the seller's description to DVLA records

This is the data that HPI, AA, and RAC charge £20-40 for. We do it for £9.49 because we don't pay for TV ads.

Frequently Asked Questions

The Path to Clarity

You now understand:

✅ Why the national average of 73.7% is a lie of aggregation
✅ That 17% of vehicle cohorts sit in the Risky Tail (<65% pass rate)
✅ Which manufacturers are Workhorses vs Danger Zone
✅ How to use this as a three-level funnel to inform your search

Next Steps

1. Bookmark this page as your reference
2. Explore model-specific guides for the cars you're shortlisting
3. Run a check on MOT Ninja for the actual car you're viewing

Trust the data. Question the seller. Drive confident.

Related Guides:

• Ford Focus MOT Guide (2014-2024)
• Vauxhall Corsa MOT Guide
• Volkswagen Golf MOT Guide
• How to Read an MOT History Like a Mechanic

Tools:

• Free MOT Check on MOT Ninja
• Full Vehicle History Report – £9.49